The Iranian Nuclear Maze

The Iranian Nuclear Maze


Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger, "Second Thought"

"Israel Hayom" Newsletter,November 11, 2011

http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=811



The assumptions that tougher sanctions could deny Iran nuclear capabilities,

could pacify Iran's nuclear programs, and could produce a regime change in

Teheran, defy reality. These assumptions and the suppositions that

Mutually-Assured-Deterrence (MAD) would enable the Free World to co-exist

with a nuclear Iran, and that the cost of a military preemption would be

prohibitive, reflect a determination to learn from recent history by

repeating – and not by avoiding – critical errors; a victory of delusion

over realism.







US and UN sanctions against North Korea – which were initiated in 1950 -

failed to prevent the nuclearization of Pyongyang. Sanctions could not

abort the development of impressive North Korean weapons of mass destruction

capabilities and its exportation – along with terrorism - to Iran, Egypt,

Syria, Asia, Africa and the American continent. Sanctions have not toppled

the Kim Jong-il regime and haven't ended its relentless pursuit of the

takeover of South Korea.







Sanctions against North Korea instilled a false sense of success, relieving

Western policy-makers of taking tougher action, thus facilitating Kim

Jong-Il's attainment of nuclear power. While sanctions brought down the

comfort-driven White regime of South Africa, they generally do not deter

rogue repressive Third World regimes, such as North Korea, Saddam's Iraq,

Cuba and Burma, which has been targeted by US sanctions since 1990.







US and UN sanctions against Iran have been ineffective for 16 years! US

sanctions were initially legislated in 1995, and UN Security Council

sanctions were initially approved in 2006. They intended to end Iran's

nuclear program and its support of Islamic terrorism and to bolster the

Iranian opposition. Additional US legislation has tightened the sanctions

and intensified punitive policy towards violators. However, systematic

non-compliance has been demonstrated by Russia and China, as well as by

Turkey, Pakistan, Malaysia, India, Japan, South Africa, Venezuela and some

of the European countries.







Disengagement from delusions and engagement with realism constitute a

prerequisite for averting Iran's nuclearization, which constitutes a clear

and present danger to the US, then to NATO, Saudi Arabia and Iraq, as well

as to Israel and to global sanity. Therefore, the prevention of a nuclear

Iran should constitute a top US national security priority.







In other words, Iran's mega-goal, since the 7th century, has been the

domination of the Persian Gulf, irrespective of the Palestinian issue,

Israel's policy or Israel's existence. Iran's mega-hurdle has been the US

and NATO presence in the Gulf. Therefore, the development of Iran's

mega-(nuclear) capability is primarily designed to force the US evacuation

of the Gulf and the Indian Ocean, through deterrence and intimidation in the

Gulf region, through beachheads in Latin America and the US mainland. Iran's

mega-capability would allow it to occupy Iraq – its arch rival since the 7th

century – and Saudi Arabia, which Iran considers an apostate regime. All

Gulf States are perceived by Iran as key prizes, required to control the

flow and the price of oil and to bankroll Teheran's megalomaniac regional

and global aspirations.







Iran's geo-strategic goals are energized by its current Islamic zeal,

viewing Jihad (Holy War) as the permanent state of relations between Moslems

and non-Moslems, while peace and ceasefire accords are tenuous. Iran

demonstrated its zeal to obtain the mega-goal at all cost, sacrificing some

500,000 people on the altar of the 1980-1988 War against Iraq, including

approximately 100,000 children who were dispatched to clear minefields.

Moreover, Teheran’s Mullahs are emboldened by the pending US evacuation of

Iraq, which they consider an extension of the US retreats from Lebanon (1958

and 1983), Vietnam (1973) and Somalia (1993).







An Iranian nuclear cloud, hovering above the US and Israel, would not

require the launching of nuclear warheads, in order to acquire significant

extortion capabilities and produce economic, social, moral and national

security havoc. Therefore, one cannot afford to await a smoking nuclear gun

in the hand of Teheran; one must prevent the nuclear gun from reaching

Teheran's hand. That excludes the options of deterrence, coexistence and

retaliation. It highlights the option of a swift and a disproportional

preemptive military operation, whose cost would be dwarfed by the cost of

inaction.







The Iranian nuclear challenge constitutes the ultimate test of leadership.

Will the US and Israel be driven by long-term conviction and realism, or

will they succumb to vacillation, oversimplification and short-term

political convenience, thus facilitating the surrender of Western

democracies to rogue Islamic regimes!?















Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger, "Second Thought: US-Israel Initiative",

יורם אטינגר, "במחשבה שנייה"



www.TheEttingerReport.com



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