By Michael Curtis
Whatever happened to the Arab Spring that was supposed
to usher in forms of modernity in the Arab world? Remember the expectations of
peaceful change, justice, reduction of poverty, democratic
institutions?
Surprisingly, small incidents in Arab countries,
beginning with the self-immolation for a trivial reason of a 26-year-old street
vendor in Tunis on December 18, 2010, led to widespread demonstrations in
Tunisia and throughout the area. Though they were not based on any particular
ideology, nor articulated in any precise manner, the protests appeared to be
concerned with high unemployment, high food prices, lack of freedoms of
expression, criticism of arbitrary power and corruption of the ruling person or
group, and greater economic equality. Have the lives of the 350 million Arabs
in the 19 predominantly Arab states changed in any real way for the better in
political or economic terms?
Rather than ushering in harmonious relationships and
desirable reforms, the Arab Spring has led to a struggle for power or resources
among Islamists, liberals, and leftists, in and among Arab countries. The
signature characteristic is violence and sectarian strife, not a search for democracy or equality. Like the violent
and deadly struggles between the different political parties and clubs in the
years during the Reign of Terror (1793-4) in the French Revolution, the
participants in the Arab struggle have eagerly devoured each
other.
The street protests have occurred in the context of
economic unevenness among the 19 states. The world is well aware of the
fortuitous oil richness of the area that contains almost half of the proven oil
reserves, and about a quarter of natural gas reserves. Eight of the countries
are wealthy as a result of those resources. In the small country of Qatar,
which has become internationally prominent in recent years, its 250,000 citizens
have a GDP per capita of $700,000 per person. By contrast, poverty in Egypt has
increased.
The world is equally aware of the need for political
change. Certainly some changes have occurred as political leaders in Tunisia,
Egypt (twice), Libya, and Yemen have been overthrown, and others have been
threatened as thousands of people spontaneously took to the streets to protest.
The king of Morocco attempted to allay protests, displayed by 40,000 in
February 2011, by promising to introduce a new constitution with limited
executive power. Similarly, other counties -- Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Sudan,
Syria, Jordan, and Tunisia, have promised constitutional
changes.
Yet few political reforms have taken place in the
mixture of undemocratic regimes, eight kingdoms and emirates, republics with
authoritarian civilian rule, and military dominated-systems that remains. Hopes
for desirable changes in Saudi Arabia, where a small movement of women and the
10-percent Shia minority have been protesting, have not yet led to any form of
real representative institutions. Calls for reforms in the six member-states of
the Gulf Co-operation Council, Egypt, Libya, and Syria go unheeded. The
protests that began in Bahrain in February 2011 were put down by Saudi troops.
The Gulf countries have increased controls over free
expression.
The unexpected consequence of the Arab Spring is the
rise of Islam as a political as well as religious force and the emergence of
Islamism -- both the Muslim Brotherhood and especially the extreme Salafists and
jihadists who are primarily interested in installing sharia law. The events have shown, as
Bernard Lewis once asserted, that genuine free and fair elections in Arab
countries are likely to result in victories for Muslim parties, because they
have a network of communication through their preachers and mosques that other
political groups do not have.
Islamist groups are prominent in Egypt, where the
population of 84 million is intensely divided (between the Brotherhood and
secular bodies such as the National Salvation Front and more moderate Muslim
groups) over the ouster, by the military headed by General Abdel Fattah
al-Sissi, of President Muhammad Morsi after a year in power. In Tunisia, the
Islamist Ennahada Movement, led by Rachid Ghannouchi, that won 41 percent of the
parliamentary seats holds power. Even in Morocco, King Mohammed thought it wise
to the head of the Islamist Justice and Development party as prime
minister.
The ostensible usual excuses, uttered during the last
sixty years, for the lack of development in the Arab countries -- Western
colonialism and imperialism and the existence of the State of Israel -- are no
longer viable.
The continuing internal turmoil; the civil wars in
Syria, Libya, Iraq, and Lebanon; and the Iran-Iraq war have claimed vastly more
refugees and casualties, amounting to perhaps over a million people, than all
those killed or injured in the Arab-Israeli conflict. Palestine as a cause is
now not even on the back burner for Arab leaders, though it may be for the
bureaucrats of the European Union in Brussels. In reality, that cause was never
very meaningful in the light of the expulsion of Palestinians from Jordan in the
1970s, from Lebanon in the 1980s, from Kuwait in the 1990s, from Iraq after the
Gulf War, and from Syria during the last two years.
Religious, international, and internal social and
demographic factors have brought changes. Tribes and clans continue to be
important in states that lack coherent central control. A greater proportion of
the populations is being educated, especially girls, who do better than boys in
school and constitute a higher proportion than boys of college students.
Countries, especially Jordan, are adopting advanced technology. Life
expectancy has increased. Youth unemployment is very high. Bitterness between
Sunnis (Wahhabists in Saudi Arabia) and Shias in the Muslim world has been
increasing as the formerly marginalized Shias attempt to play a greater
role.
Finally, perhaps the events of the Arab Spring have
brought the realization that Arab states and peoples have squandered their
energy and resources on the essentially minor irritant of the existence of the
State of Israel instead of using it for the internal reform and modernization of
their own systems. Can the Arab peoples admit mistakes, become aware of and
attempt to remedy their mistaken priorities, and forego their fantasy of "Jewish
conspiracies" and hatred of Israel? Will they recognize that their leaders have
used and perpetuated the Palestinian-Israeli conflict for political and economic
advantage?
The consequences of the Arab Spring will be invaluable
if it focuses attention on the real problems of the Arab
world.
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