__________________________________________________________________________September 22,
2013
Israel's Bright Future,
By Guy Millière
Israel is undoubtedly one of the most hated countries on
Earth. Hatred against Israel is deeply rooted in the Arab world and in the
Muslim world at large. It has also progressed quickly in Europe over the last
decades. Although less common in North America, it is gaining ground,
especially in universities, and "anti-Zionist" events such as Israeli Apartheid
Week annually attract thousands of students on dozens of
campuses.
In addition, Israel is a threatened country. Iran
continues toward building nuclear weapons. Instability in the Sinai Peninsula
may at any moment lead to a deadly terrorist attack. The civil war raging in
Syria, the presence of al-Qaeda on Syrian territory, and an eventual strike
against Syrian military could spill over into Israel and lead to a larger-scale
war.
Israel is also a country facing difficulties: real
estate prices are very high and restrict homeownership, tensions between
ultra-Orthodox and more mainstream Jews are rising, and the poverty rate is
above twenty percent. Nevertheless, polls show year after year that the
Israeli population is imbued with hope and confidence. A recently published
survey, the World Happiness Report, based on Gallup World Poll data, says that
Israelis are the 11th-happiest people in the world, behind the Swiss
and Scandinavians, but before the Americans (17th), the British
(22nd ), the French (25th), and the Germans
(26th).
Israelis' happiness is difficult to explain to people
who observe Israel from a distance, but if one delves deeper into Israeli
society, it becomes very explicable. Although it is less present in the Tel Aviv intellectual
elites, a feeling of belonging to a society sure of its values and core beliefs
is very strong in Israel: the Jewish people regained their land and their roots,
and Israelis feel that they are part of something much larger than themselves.
People who have meaning and purpose in their lives are always
happier.
Israelis who contemplate the history of their nation
cannot but be impressed by what was accomplished in so short a time. In little
more than six decades, Israel has evolved from a developing country to a country
at the forefront of technological accomplishments, and from a tiny and fragile
country to the most stable and the strongest power in the Middle East. Israel
was constantly faced with wars and terrorism but never ceased to be an exemplary
democracy and never restricted freedom of
speech.
It could be added that, twenty years on, Israelis have
largely distanced themselves from the illusions that led to the Oslo Accords.
As they seek peace, most of them know that they have no partner for peace.
Most of them know that the status quo is the least bad solution and that Israel
can wait, with vigilance and determination. They have confidence in Israel's
ability to defend itself. Despite the regional context, a recent survey showed
that only 16.4 percent of Israelis believe that Israel faces increased risks
over the next few months, and 74.4 percent of Israelis think that Israel's
security will remain what it is today, or will soon improve. The same survey
indicated that only 7.7 percent of Israelis believe that an agreement with the
Palestinians is possible.
During the Jewish year that just ended with Rosh
Hashanah and the ten Days of Awe leading up to Yom Kippur, one Israeli was
murdered in a terrorist attack, and eleven Arabs involved in terror attacks were
killed. These figures are among the lowest in the history of Israel. Since the
fall of Mohamed Morsi, Hamas is paralyzed and on the defensive. The Palestinian
Authority sees that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not a priority for
anyone apart from John Kerry. Iran is a growing threat, but its leaders'
priority is to save the Assad regime; Hezb'allah knows that it could hardly
survive if the Assad regime does not survive; and the Assad regime itself has no
intention to attack Israel: in the last decade, Assad has chosen to ignore all
Israeli attacks on its territory. Sunni jihadist groups are busy fighting the
Assad regime or fomenting sectarian strife in
Iraq.
The Israeli government agreed a few weeks ago to return
to the negotiating table. Binyamin Netanyahu sent Tzipi Livni to meet Saeb
Erekat. But not a single minister, except perhaps Tzipi Livni, thinks an
agreement will emerge. The idea that Israel must choose between being a Jewish
state and remaining a democratic state, recently revived by the creation of a
Constitution Committee, finds little echo in the Israeli population: Israel is a
democratic country, and Israel is a country where the population will remain
predominantly Jewish, with no risk of demographic submersion. Israeli Arabs
represent twenty percent of the country's population, and their birth rate has
been steadily converging with that of Israeli Jews. Even if, hypothetically,
Israel annexed Judea and Samaria, the most reliable figures (used by the CIA's
World Factbook and the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics) show that the
proportion of Arabs in Israel would reach 35 percent -- and the Arab birth rate
in Judea and Samaria is lower than that of Israeli
Arabs.
Beyond the differences among its members, the Israeli
government faithfully reflects the determined force permeating the Israeli
people. They discern that time is on Israel's side, and that even if Israel may
yet have to act against imminent threats, the future of the country is
bright.
The Arab world is being torn apart. It looks on the
verge of a general collapse that could last for years, maybe decades. Iran's
economy is in very bad shape, and unlike the Israeli population (3 children per
woman), the Iranian population is aging (1.8 children per woman). Turkey's
economy was booming but is now slowing down, and the Turkish fertility rate is
decreasing.
Europe takes anti-Israel decisions, but Europe's
economies cannot break ties with the Israeli economy: European businesses need
Israeli technologies and cannot do without Israel's creativity and dynamism.
After the European Union imposed a boycott against Israel, Israel threatened to
withdraw from Horizon 2020, "the
EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation."
Consequently, EU leaders reversed their policy, and EU "Foreign Minister"
Catherine Ashton stated (at the meeting of EU Foreign Minister in Vilnius on
September 6): "Of course, we want to continue having a strong relationship with
Israel."
European economies will also have to take into account
that Israel's newly discovered energy resources will shift the future balance of
power in the Middle East: Israel is now the country with the largest latent oil
and gas wealth per capita. In March, the first major Israeli gas field, Tamar,
began production. Other fields will follow. The Shfela Basin, southeast of Jerusalem, contains 250 billion barrels of pre-oil hydrocarbon
and could soon be commercially exploited. Israel will become a producer and
exporter of cheap energy. Its GDP will considerably increase. Its military
security will be decisively enhanced.
The Israeli government sees that friendship between the
American people and Israel remains deep and intense, despite campaigns of
anti-Israeli propaganda and political fluctuations. The most recent polls show
that, unlike Europeans, who are mired in moral relativism and infected with
renewed anti-Semitism, a clear majority of Americans (64 percent in March, a
record high) have a good opinion of Israel (the corresponding figures at the
same moment were 17 percent in France and the United Kingdom, 10 percent in
Germany).
In 2009, George Gilder published a book called The
Israel Test. He said that those who love achievement have esteem and
admiration for Israel, and only the love of achievement is fruitful. The people
of Israel love achievement and see that Israel is on the side of fruitfulness.
The American people also remain fundamentally committed to achievement and are
firmly on the side of Israel.
Guy Millière is a senior
fellow of the Gatestone Institute and a a professor at the University of Paris.
He has published 27 books on France, Europe, the United States, and the Middle
East.
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